10 THINKING TRAPS

Even Smart CEOs Get Stuck in + How to Counter Them

1. Overconfidence Bias

Believing you know more than you do

Example: Launching into a new market without testing, because you "just know" it'll work.

Counter: Start with a pilot before going all in.

2. Confirmation Bias

Only seeing what supports your beliefs.

Example: Ignoring critical feedback. while praising loyal fans.

Counter: Appoint a "devil's advocate to challenge assumptions in key meetings.

10. Survivorship Bias

Only studying the winners.

Example: Copying unicorns without looking at the 99% that failed

Counter: Study both successes and failures before making key decisions.

9. Sunk Cost Fallacy

Sticking with a bad investment to protect past effort.

Example: Propping up a failing product because of what you've already spent.

Counter: Define a "kill switch" in advance then use it.

8. Status Quo Bias

Favoring the familiar over the better.

Example: "The old system works fine. Why change?"

Counter: Ask: "If we weren't already doing this, would we start now?"

7. Recency Bias

Overvaluing the latest data.

Example: Treating one bad quarter like a long-term trend.

Counter: Use rolling averages to spot real patterns.

3. Groupthink

by Eric Partaker

Avoiding conflict to keep the peace.

Example: Everyone nods at the CEO's plan-no debate, no pushback.

Counter: Use anonymous input to surface real opinions.

4. Authority Bias

Overweighting opinions from "experts.

Example: Taking a board member's advice over hard data.

Counter: Require evidence, no matter who's speaking

5. Anchoring Bias

Fixating on the first number you hear.

Example: Using a supplier's first quote as the benchmark.

Counter: Compare at least three independent options before deciding.

6. Availability Bias

Overreacting to what's memo able.

Example: Rethinking strategy after one loud customer complaint. 1